Russian Forecast is very different

I read today (out of Russia) they are preparing for a New Ice Age – NO not another cartoon, but the genuine Brrrrrr thing!

Climate Change is a reality that no one I talk to denies. Any arguments and discussions seem to centre around WHO is responsible – if it is people (AGW) or naturally cyclic. That is not a discussion about pollution, it is a discussion about weather variations of a very serious nature.

Are we just talking about rain, ice, snow, wild weather? Maybe! However there are some other serious and strange things also happening in the world right now that I don’t think can be put into the realm of AGW – human caused – climate change. Anyone care to speculate on the number of active volcanoes currently? This will give you some facts.

What about wild weather, storms and earthquakes? Some would call this extreme weather. Seems to me the numbers being reported are growing daily.

Yet we continue to hear from the mainstream media that human kind (you and me) are the ones responsible for climate change. Climate change causes severe weather anomalies, therefore it must mean that we are responsible!

The Australia Government has actually legislated a new tax because of their belief in the human causation of climate change. The Carbon Dioxide Taxation Scheme was passed into law in Australia this November, making everyone in the country  responsible for the amount of carbon dioxide that goes into the atmosphere.

The Prime Minister Julia Gillard and her (hand in hand) Green Political Partner, Bob Brown have said that only the top 500 companies polluting will have to pay the levy. However they both must be thick in the head if they do not understand that whatever tax companies have to pay will be passed onto the Australian Public.

All this is (by the way) supposed to ensure that Australia is doing its part in reducing global temperatures. It does not seem to matter that credible scientists have said that what little (if any) reduction in carbon dioxide will occur in Australia because of this new Tax Scheme, it will do nowt – NOTHING – to reduce the temperature of planet earth.

Meanwhile up in Russia credible scientists are forecasting a seriously different scenario.

In a study of cyclic behavior of the Sun, Russian scientists now predict 100 years of cooling.

IceAgeNow reports that these are not just any scientists. This forecast comes from astrophysicist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the Russian segment of the International Space Station, and head of Space Research of the Sun Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

I have not heard that President Medvedev or Vladimir Putin are considering levying a Carbon Dioxide Tax, neither have I read they are considering an ice tax! What I have read is that they will be seriously looking at this latest scientific report. Seems they are not too obstinate to consider the sun – that big yellow disc in the sky – to be a possible contributor to Earth’s climate patterns.

Scientists are still seeking answers to the perplexing question of whether the sun does indeed affects our climate.

Radiation from the Sun ultimately provides the only energy source for the Earth’s atmosphere and changes in solar activity clearly have the potential to affect climate. There is statistical evidence for solar influence on various meteorological parameters on all timescales, although extracting the signal from the noise in a naturally highly variable system remains a key problem. Changes in total solar irradiance undoubtedly impact the Earth’s energy balance but uncertainties in the historical record of TSI mean that the magnitude of even this direct influence is not well-known. Variations in solar UV radiation impact the thermal structure and composition of the middle atmosphere but details of the responses in both temperature and ozone concentrations are not well established. Various theories are now being developed for coupling mechanisms whereby direct solar impacts on the middle atmosphere might influence the troposphere but the influences are complex and non-linear and many questions remain concerning the detailed mechanisms which determine to what extent, where and when the solar influence is felt. Variations in cosmic radiation, modulated by solar activity, are manifest in changes in atmospheric ionisation but it is not yet clear whether these have the potential to significantly affect the atmosphere in a way that will impact climate.

Further advances in this field require work on a number of fronts. One important issue is to establish the magnitude of any secular trends in total solar irradiance (TSI). This may be achieved by careful analysis and understanding of the satellite instruments involved in collecting data over the past two-and-a-half solar cycles, and must be continued through analysis of data from current and new satellites. For longer periods it requires a more fundamental understanding of how solar magnetic activity relates to TSI. This would not only facilitate more reliable centennial-scale reconstructions of TSI, from e.g. sunspot records, but also advance understanding of how cosmogenic isotope records may be interpreted as historical TSI.

With regard to the climate, further data-mining and analysis are required to firmly establish the magnitude, geographical distribution and seasonality of its response to various forms of solar activity. Understanding the mechanisms involved in the response then becomes the overriding objective. Current ideas suggest three main avenues where further research is needed. Firstly, the means whereby solar radiative heating of the upper and middle atmosphere may influence the lower atmosphere through dynamical coupling needs to be better understood. Secondly, it needs to be established whether or not variations in direct solar heating of the tropical oceans can be of sufficient magnitude to produce apparently observed effects. Thirdly, more work is needed on the microphysical processes involved in ion-induced nucleation, and, probably more importantly, the growth rates of the condensation nuclei produced.

Perhaps when these questions are answered we will be confident that we really understand how changes in the Sun affect the climate on Earth.

Source.

One can say with some accuracy that the sun has been quite active of late and, predictions are that it will remain so for a year or so longer. Currently there is some remarkable solar activity which is perplexing the scientists. However, if the Russian’s have got it right, then once this current solar cycle ends, we could be in for quite a change. Better stock up on thermal underwear folks!

If you are interested in what the sun is currently doing, may I suggest you read this page from the Watchers Blog. It is most informative.

In the mean time, if you live in Australia then you are stuck with this new Carbon Dioxide Tax, at least until the next election, when you will have an opportunity to UN ELECT The Green’s, The Independents who sold you out, and the Current Labor Government. Then perhaps what has been put into place can be undone, so that Australia as a Nation is no longer the laughing-stock of the entire world.

Looks like Cartoonist Steve Hunter got it right!

See ya next time!